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Latest Insights
Macro · Event Watch — Key Catalysts Ahead (5–10 October)
Do Treasury Yields Finally Follow the Dovish Fed Repricing? Despite October hike odds collapsing from ~70% to ~20% within a single week, the 10-year yield has stayed stubbornly near 5.2–5.3%. If yields remain anchored at two-decade highs regardless of near-term Fed policy, it suggests term-premium and fiscal concerns not the...
A Weak Jobs Report Finally Breaks the Hike Narrative — But Yields Haven't Gotten the Memo Yet
GOLD · ~$4,140–4,212/oz “Fed Odds Flipped in a Week, But Gold Still Can’t Hold the Bounce” WHAT HAPPENED. Gold had a genuinely volatile week, falling 3% to a seven-week low of $4,156.45 on Monday, September 28 as Brent spiked on the collapse of US-Iran Hormuz talks, before clawing back some...
Two-Decade-High Yields Meet a Rejected Peace Plan — Gold Slips Toward $4,100 Into a Data-Heavy Week
GOLD · ~$4,210–4,285/oz “Yields at a Two-Decade High Are Overpowering Every Safe-Haven Bid” WHAT HAPPENED. Gold gave up its post-Fed bounce from the prior edition, finishing last week with a loss of more than 2% and settling near $4,285 on Friday, September 25. The slide resumed at Monday’s open, with spot gold dipping...
Three Central Banks Deliver, Oil Retreats on Pipeline Repairs — A Firm Dollar Caps the Metals Rebound
GOLD · ~$4,368–4,400/oz “A Hawkish Hike, But the First Weekly Gain in a Month” WHAT HAPPENED. Gold has snapped a three-week losing streak, edging up to a one-week high near $4,380 on Friday, September 18, and extending its recovery into the new week to trade around $4,368–4,391. The rebound has been driven...
Oil Tops $100, a Hike Looks Nearly Certain — Metals Fall Together Into a Live FOMC Decision
GOLD · ~$4,280–4,400/oz “A Third Straight Weekly Decline as a Hike Looks Almost Locked In” WHAT HAPPENED. Gold has slipped for a third consecutive week, easing to around $4,285–4,348 as of Monday, September 14, down from levels above $4,600 seen in late August. The metal briefly stabilized after last Thursday’s sharp commodities...
A Hawkish Fed Meets a Widening War — Gold Erases Warsh's Jackson Hole Selloff in a Single Weekend
GOLD · ~$4,350–4,600/oz “A Hawkish Fed and a Reawakened War Are Pulling in Opposite Directions” WHAT HAPPENED. Gold is holding a roughly $200 range built over the past five sessions, trading near $4,500 as of Monday, August 31. Having touched a three-month high near $4,700 in the week of August 24, the metal tumbled...
Ceasefire Expires, Copper Hits Records, and the Fed Goes Quiet Before Jackson Hole
GOLD · ~$4,370–4,440/oz “A Second Straight Weekly Gain, Just as the Iran Ceasefire Hits Its Deadline” WHAT HAPPENED. Gold opened the week firmly, extending the rally built since early August with a 2.4% weekly gain at Monday’s open and trading as high as $4,420–4,440 in early Asian hours before easing slightly. The metal...
A Payrolls Shock Overrides the Hawks — Metals Surge Together as Hormuz Talks Stay Stuck
GOLD · ~$4,300–4,365/oz “A Payrolls Contraction Undoes the Fed’s Hawkish Dissent in a Single Session” WHAT HAPPENED. Gold has rallied sharply off its early-August base near $4,050, hitting a seven-week high above $4,360 and posting its best weekly gain since January. The move was triggered almost entirely by Friday, August 7’s July...
A Divided Fed, a Still-Boiling Middle East — Metals Digest the Most Contested Hold in a Decade
GOLD · ~$4,000–4,160/oz “The Fed’s Most Divided Vote in a Decade Leaves Gold Without a Clear Signal” WHAT HAPPENED. Gold has settled into a calmer $4,040–4,090 band after a genuinely volatile end to July. The metal round-tripped between roughly $4,000 and $4,160 in the days around the July 28–29 FOMC meeting,...
Oil Spikes Past $100, Then Truce — Metals Round-Trip Into the Most Unpredictable FOMC in Years
GOLD · ~$4,000–4,160/oz “A Full Round Trip on War, Truce, and the Fed’s Silence” WHAT HAPPENED. Gold has been through a genuine mood swing over the past week and a half a spike above $4,160, a slide near $4,000, and a scramble back above $4,100, all inside roughly ten trading sessions. By...
Hormuz War Resumes as Cooling CPI Fights the Oil Shock — Metals Caught Between Two Fires
GOLD · ~$3,995–4,090/oz “Caught Between a Reopened War and a Cooling CPI Print” WHAT HAPPENED. Gold has traded in a volatile $3,995–4,090 band over the past week, unable to sustain either leg of two directly opposing narratives. The metal briefly reclaimed $4,000 and popped over 1% on Tuesday, July 14, after a...