Macro · Event Watch — Key Catalysts Ahead (19–23 October)
Hormuz Flows Collapse and Houthi Attacks on Saudi Energy
Kpler reports the seven-day average of Hormuz crude flows fell to about 8.5 million barrels per day last week from more than 20 million the week before, with at least 10 vessel incidents including a tanker that exploded after striking a mine on Sunday. The Houthis claim attacks on the Yanbu Aramco facility, the Shaybah oilfield, Riyadh’s airport and Abha airport, though Saudi authorities have not confirmed them. SEB warns Iran could escalate further ahead of the November 3 US midterms.
Bullish (oil/gold safe-haven): more tanker strikes or Saudi infrastructure hits
Bearish (oil): shipping incidents ease and flows recover
US Waiver on Russian Energy Sanctions
A Trump executive order waived some sanctions and tariffs tied to Russian energy exports, yet analysts say the waiver does little to address the physical disruption in Hormuz, and Ukraine struck an oil terminal in Saint Petersburg over the weekend. Whether extra Russian diesel actually reaches the market is the test.
Bullish (gold via lower inflation risk): Russian supply arrives and Brent cools
Bearish (gold): supply fails to materialise and Brent holds above $105
Fed Blackout & the Run-Up to the October 27–28 FOMC
The blackout runs through October 29, so no official can confirm or calm a move. With October hike odds near 15% and December near 89%, the 10-year yield will do most of the talking. The Michigan survey’s one-year inflation expectation of 4.7% remains the Fed’s soft spot.
Bullish (metals): yields keep easing and the pause stays priced in
Bearish (metals): inflation expectations rise and December pricing hardens
Flash PMIs & Michigan Sentiment — Friday, October 23
The October S&P Global flash PMIs (services near 58, manufacturing near 55.5 in the last readings) and the final Michigan survey land on Friday. Strong activity with rising input costs keeps the Fed from easing, so a hot reading is the risk for metals.
Bullish (metals): PMIs soften and input-cost pressure eases
Bearish (metals): PMIs beat and inflation expectations rise
Big Tech Earnings — Meta and Tesla (Wednesday), Netflix (Tuesday)
The most closely watched AI-cycle earnings cluster in months will test the growth worries that pushed yields down last week. A rebound in tech sentiment could reverse the bond rally that has been supporting gold.
Bullish (gold): earnings deepen AI-growth worries and keep yields falling
Bearish (gold): strong results lift risk appetite and yields
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