Macro · Event Watch — Key Catalysts Ahead (28 September – 2 October)
US–Iran Talks After the Rejected Seven-Day Plan
Iran says it will not soften its conditions, while Trump says Tehran has overplayed its hand yet still expects negotiations to resume this week. Middle East crude exports recovered to 12.8 million barrels per day in September, the highest since the war began, but Brent is back above $106. Saudi Arabia is also intercepting Houthi drones aimed at Riyadh and the south.
Bullish (oil): talks stall further or strikes resume earlier than expected
Bearish (oil): a phased Hormuz reopening is agreed
Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge & Fed Speakers
With an October hike about two-thirds priced and December near-certain, PCE data will test whether the Fed’s tightening path is already fully discounted. Cleveland Fed President Hammack has linked higher long-term yields to fiscal and debt concerns, so speakers may also address the bond selloff directly.
Bullish (metals): PCE cools and officials sound less urgent on October
Bearish (metals): PCE runs hot and hike odds move toward certainty
September Jobs Report — Friday, October 2
Jobless claims at a near 60-year low argue for a strong print. A soft number would be the clearest route to lower yields and a rebound in gold and silver.
Bullish (metals): payrolls disappoint, yields retreat from 5.20%
Bearish (metals): a strong print locks in an October hike
Escondida Strike Vote & US Refined-Copper Tariff
Workers at the world’s largest copper mine vote between September 28 and 30, while the White House tariff decision (15–30% proposed) has no set date. Either outcome could close or widen the gap between COMEX and LME prices.
Bullish (copper): strike goes ahead or the tariff is confirmed
Bearish (copper): labour deal reached and tariff softened or shelved
US Diesel Export Ban & Refined-Product Prices
Trump is weighing curbs on US diesel exports to address record fuel prices. WTI fell nearly 8% last week on that prospect while Brent edged up, and any ban would tighten supply outside the US and add to inflation risk.
Bullish (inflation risk): a ban is announced, lifting global product prices
Bearish (inflation risk): the proposal is dropped and US product prices ease
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All prices are approximate and subject to market conditions. · Pan Asia Market Intelligence · 28 September 2026
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