Macro · Event Watch — Key Catalysts Ahead (10–14 August)
July CPI — The Next Test of Whether the Dovish Repricing Holds
With September hike odds already cut from 58% to roughly 42% on the payrolls miss, this week’s CPI print becomes the swing factor for whether that repricing extends or reverses. Per an FT report, Fed Chair Warsh remains prepared to raise rates in September if inflation readings come in hot, even after the weak jobs data meaning this print carries outsized weight for the whole metals complex.
Bullish (metals): CPI surprises soft, reinforcing the dovish shift
Bearish (metals): a hot print revives September hike pricing
Iran-Oman Hormuz Talks — Stalled, Not Collapsed
Optimism around an imminent reopening deal has faded as Iran seeks to exclude US and Israeli-linked vessels and impose fees on “hostile” countries, while Washington insists on unrestricted transit. President Trump has struck a patient, “low-keying it” tone even as attacks on tankers in and near the Strait continue. A breakthrough or a fresh breakdown are both live possibilities this week.
Bullish (gold/oil): talks break down further or attacks escalate
Bearish (gold/oil): a partial reopening agreement is reached
Codelco El Teniente & DRC Copper Export Ban — Follow-Through
Confirmation of the duration of El Teniente’s suspension and any further detail on the Democratic Republic of Congo’s concentrate export ban will determine whether copper’s move to fresh record highs has further room to run into a genuine physical squeeze, or whether some of the premium unwinds.
Bullish (copper): both disruptions are confirmed as prolonged/durable
Bearish (copper): either proves more limited than initially feared
Fed Speaker Circuit — Do the Hawks Push Back on the Jobs Data?
With the July jobs report undercutting the case made by the three hawkish dissenters from the July FOMC meeting, markets will watch closely for any follow-up commentary from Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan, as well as from Chair Warsh, on how the labour-market weakness is being weighed against still-elevated inflation.
Bullish (metals): the dovish majority’s read gains further support
Bearish (metals): hawkish dissenters argue the jobs miss is noise, not signal
US Dollar & Real Yields — Does the Post-Payrolls Slide Continue?
The dollar index slid to a two-week low on the jobs shock, directly supporting all four metals. Whether that slide extends through CPI week or stabilizes will set the tone for dollar-denominated commodities broadly.
Bullish (metals): DXY extends its slide on continued soft data
Bearish (metals): DXY stabilizes or rebounds on a hot CPI print
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All prices are approximate and subject to market conditions. · Pan Asia Market Intelligence · 10 August 2026
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